Population of the Southeastern Arizona Planning Area

Census data for 2000 show about 188,300 residents in the Southeastern Arizona Planning Area.  Arizona Department of Economic Security (DES) population projections forecast about 294,600 residents by 2030.  Historic, current and projected basin populations are shown in the cultural water demand tables for each basin in Sections 3.1-3.14. Projections may not accurately reflect the most recent proposed developments.

The most populous basins reported in the 2000 census are the Upper San Pedro (78,013), Safford (42,281), Douglas (26,220), Lower San Pedro (15,515), and Willcox (12,354) basins.  Six basins in the planning area are sparsely populated, with less than 200 residents including Aravaipa Canyon, Bonita Creek, Donnelly Wash, Dripping Springs Wash, San Bernardino Valley and San Rafael basins.  The 2000 Census population of the San Carlos Apache Reservation was 9,385, an increase of over 2,000 residents since the 1990 census.  The 2000 Census populations for each basin and Indian reservation, listed from highest to lowest, are shown in Table 3.0-4.

Table 3.0-5 Communities with a Census population greater than

1,000 (listed by 2000 population)

Shown in Table 3.0-5 are incorporated and unincorporated communities in the planning area with 2000 Census populations greater than 1,000 and growth rates for two time periods. Communities are listed from highest to lowest population in 2000. As shown, there are several rapidly growing communities including Sierra Vista and adjacent areas, Douglas, Whetstone and Swift Trail Junction south of Safford. The largest municipality in the planning area is Sierra Vista with a 2000 Census population of 37,775, or 20% of the planning area population. The population of the Sierra Vista subwatershed (roughly the southern half of the basin), contained about 37% of the planning area population in 2000. Approximately half the population of the San Carlos Apache Reservation resides in the communities of Peridot and San Carlos (the 10th largest community in the planning area and the tribal headquarters). Some communities in the planning area, including Clifton, Kearny and Mammoth have lost population due to declines or closures of mining operations. Between 1990 and 2000, the population living in smaller communities and rural areas grew faster than the population living in communities with 1,000 or more residents.

Population Growth and Water Use

Arizona has limited mechanisms to address the connections between land use, population growth and water supply.  A legislative attempt to link growth and water management planning is the Growing Smarter Plus Act of 2000 (Act) which requires that counties with a population greater than 125,000 (2000 Census) include planning for water resources in their comprehensive plans.  None of the counties in the planning area fit this population criterion.  However, Cochise County has incorporated water resource planning into its comprehensive plan, has adopted water use guidelines for certain area plans and has adopted a Water Conservation and Management Policy Plan for the Sierra Vista sub-watershed portion of the basin.

Its goal is to “sustain an adequate, safe water supply through water conservation measures; policies; incentive programs; education; conservation and enhancement of natural recharge areas; and cooperative, multi-jurisdictional planning”.  The Act also requires that twenty-three communities outside AMAs include a water resources element in their general plans.  In the Southeastern Arizona Planning Area this includes the communities of Benson, Douglas, Safford and Sierra Vista. Plans must consider water demand and water resource availability in conjunction with growth, land use and infrastructure. References to completed plans are listed in basin references in this volume.

Beginning in 2007, all community water systems in the state were required to submit Annual Water Use Reports and System Water Plans. The reports and plans are intended to reduce community water systems’ vulnerability to drought, and to promote water resource planning to ensure that water providers are prepared to respond to water shortage conditions.  In addition, the information will allow the State to provide regional planning assistance to help communities prepare for, mitigate and respond to drought.  An Annual Water Use Report must be submitted each year by the systems that includes information on water pumped, diverted and received, water delivered to customers, and effluent used or received. The System Water Plan must be updated and submitted every five years and consist of three components, a Water Supply Plan, a Drought Preparedness Plan and a Water Conservation Plan. By January 1, 2008, all systems were required to submit plans and by the end of 2008, plans were submitted by 61 community water systems in the planning area.  Almost all of the larger systems submitted plans and were used to prepare this document. Annual water report information and a list of water plans are found in Appendix B.  For more information see the Department's community systems water webpage.

City of Sierra Vista including Fort Huachuca, in the

Upper San Pedro Basin.  Sierra vista is the largest municipality in the planning area.  The Sierra Vista Subwatershed contained about 37% of the planning

area population in 2000.

The Department’s Water Adequacy Program also relates water supply and demand to growth to some extent, but does not control growth.  Developers of subdivisions outside of AMAs are required to obtain a determination of whether there is sufficient water of adequate quality available for 100 years.  If the supply is inadequate, lots may still be sold, but the condition of the water supply must be disclosed in promotional materials and in sales documents.  Legislation adopted in June 2007 (SB 1575) authorizes a county board of supervisors to adopt a provision, by unanimous vote, which requires a new subdivision to have an adequate water supply in order for the subdivision to be approved by the platting authority.  If adopted, cities and towns within the county may not approve a subdivision unless it has an adequate water supply.  If the county does not adopt the provision, the legislation allows a city or town to adopt a local adequacy ordinance that requires a demonstration of adequacy before the final plat can be approved.  The Cochise County Board of Supervisors was the first in the state to adopt the provisions of SB 1575 in March, 2008. The Town of Patagonia, located in Santa Cruz County, has also adopted the provision since Santa Cruz County has not adopted the new standards.

Table 3.0-6 Summary of Water Adequacy Determinations in the Southeastern Arizona Planning Area through December 2008

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